Iran's Demise : EI Weekend 3308
Regional Middle Eastern power Iran has lost its satellite terror organisations and the Islamic Republic faces tough times.
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On this day in 1887, John Stith (“Doc”) Pemberton, an Atlanta druggist, received a trademark from the U.S. Patent Office for his “New and Popular Soda Fountain Drink, containing the properties of the wonderful Coca plant and the famous Cola nuts.” Pemberton produced the syrup for Coca-Cola and carried a jug of the new product down the street to Jacobs’ Pharmacy, where it was sampled, pronounced “excellent,” and placed on sale for five cents a glass as a soda fountain drink. Carbonated water was teamed with the new syrup to produce a drink that was at once “Delicious and Refreshing,” a theme that Coca-Cola adopted in its marketing messages.
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So that was quite the fortnight with a 12 day war which saw Israel devastate Iran. It was the culmination of a long period where the corruption and mismanagement of the Iranian fundamentalist regime has finally been exposed as incapable of supporting the country’s ambitions.
In some ways it all began with the crash which killed President Raisi in 2024. The reports noted climactic issues (Helicopter Crash That Killed Iran’s President Was Caused By Climatic Conditions, Report Finds | AP News) but then again flying antiquated US helicopters bought during the Shah’s regime a half century ago without the luxury of easy access to spare parts for the heavily sanctioned regime, spelt disaster.
More recently the nation has been in simply giddy decline. Iran has significant issues. Incredibly, given the nation sits on 10% of the world’s proven oil reserves and 15% of its proven gas reserves, Iran has been suffering a domestic energy crisis since last year.
Those domestic issues may lead to regime change in due course. By the looks of it this will be a domestic uprising without the US or any other regional power feeling the need to intervene.
A key pinch point remains in oil supplies. Iran has gone from 2.5 million barrels per day of oil exports just weeks ago to 150,000 per day (Iran’s Oil Exports Plummet By Over 90% — JNS.org) as the Israelis successfully waged the 12 day war. That’s a catastrophic six figure millions of lost revenue — every day! With storage facilities pumped dry to prevent Israeli attacks, Iran may have an issue distributing oil for overseas purchasers too.
Even a month ago, exports were a far cry from the start of the year: Iran’s Oil Exports Soar To 587m Barrels, Led By China’s Thirst albeit China remains Iran’s biggest oil buyer.
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To put that in perspective it’s about the size of Canada’s government bond market — in 1997. The US Bond market is worth about $50 trillion in a global bond market of about $120 trillion.
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EXCHANGE INVEST WEEKLY PODCAST
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As ASX marks a staggering new benchmark for corporate tone deafness,
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No perceived hurdles to NSE IPO,
NYSE Texas finds a spacious new home.
And then there’s the best bourse marketing idea in ages — ‘The Gong Show’ rolls in Hong Kong.
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As always, a review of interesting reading to provoke thoughts and consideration… Not sure we agree with much of it….but it’s thought-provoking!
Such a fast moving week, even PLY’s own analysis Monday looks somewhat dated although where others were talking up oil prices, I could see the war was closer to fizzling out than becoming a vast regional conflict: Escalation In The Middle East: U.S. Airstrikes On Iran’s Nuclear Facilities (Fintech TV). another few days and it was essentially all over — apart of course from the Ayatollah’s ludicrous performative declaration of victory to save his regime from domestic uprising.
Israel Has Weakened Iran — But Not Destroyed It
The Spectator
PLY: The point was never to destroy but in what he has done, PM Netanyahu has surely secured his legacy in an incredible way despite all manner of domestic issues and a long campaign to oust him from office even before the October 7, 2023 attacks after which he was widely expected to resign. In defanging all the acolyte sponsored terrorist organisations, and then nullifying the coherent threat of Iran to destroy Israel, the “great satan” US and “little satan” UK, it is difficult not to look at the world and say that Natanyahu, with a helpful push from US forces, has helped blunt the Iranian threat and indeed reduce it from a regional power to a populous also ran state in the region.
Explainer | Why The Strait Of Hormuz Matters — And What A Blockade Could Mean For China, The World
South China Morning Post
PLY: A highly useful surmise as 20% of the world’s oil transits south through the Straits of Hormuz — a billion dollar a day business — predominantly to China, India, Japan and South Korea. That was also why I thought Iranian threats to close the Straits earlier this week looked very hollow, Iran couldn’t afford the revenue hit and China was not going to lose its access to oil…
How Iran Lost: Tehran’s Hard-Liners Squandered Decades Of Strategic Capital And Undermined Deterrence
Foreign Affairs
…and two historical analogies:
PLY: A great example of proud Persian stubbornness QV How Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi was highly diffident towards the USA after meeting European leaders Friday 20th…and delivered perhaps the greatest miscalculation in Iranian history.
How The Death Of Qasem Soleimani Weakened The Foundations Of Iran’s Regime
Mojahedin of Iran
What You Need To Know About The Death Of Soleimani
ACLJ
PLY: Finally it’s worth recalling this zinger of a move from the Trump White House in term one, removing QUDS terrorist league leader Qasem Soleimani. Just like this past week, the Iranians promised hellfire and damnation in return but the attacks on US forces, just like those on the Qatar base this week were little more than performative art for domestic political benefit…
Of course now Israel has essentially supplanted Iran as a regional power but it is oriented to maintaining the prosperity of its own nation, as opposed to destroying other regimes (unless, as Iran has discovered) it is seeking to destroy the state of Israel itself.
Books worth reading:
Finance Book Of The Week
“Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. In particular, Nassim skewers the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
Get the book here.
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Capital Market Revolution
First published in 1999, “Capital Market Revolution!” offered a clear, concise roadmap for navigating the financial revolution fueled by technology. And 25 years later, as the world of fintech continues to evolve, the core principles laid out in the book remain surprisingly sharp
This new edition was produced to celebrate PLY ringing the NYSE Closing Bell July 5th, 2024. There are several new sections of PLY pith to add 10,000 more words of context and the original book which is remarkably prescient and elegantly dated all at once! It’s only $9.99 on Kindle, a fraction of the original price in 1999 to encourage revolutionaries with any budget!
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