Macro Thoughts: EI Weekend 3302
Chinese students misperceived, UK gov ripe for revolution? Iran's Dilemma & Have we reached Peak Xi?
Exchange Invest is a unique information resource combining the day’s stories in a newsletter for investors in exchanges/financial markets infrastructure.
Exchange Invest was founded by former exchange CEO and author of the first bestselling book of fintech (“Capital Market Revolution!” FT 1999) Patrick Young. Monday through Friday our daily paid subscriber email discusses the business of bourses of all kinds across the world.
On this day in 2001, BSSE, the Bratislava Stock Exchange in Slovakia, was founded.
SPONSORED BY:
MACRO THOUGHTS
Michael Habte was our guest on IPO-VID this week discussing the Ethiopian Stock Exchange of which he is COO having served as co-lead of the entire project.
As Michael noted with regard to Ethiopia: “We were the biggest country in the world, both GDP wise and population wise, without a capital market.”
This fascinating takeaway is somewhat turbocharged by the incredible population pyramid of Ethiopia, take a look at this (courtesy of Wikipedia).
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ethiopia_single_age_population_pyramid_2020.png Sdgedfegw CC BY-SA 4.0
That’s pretty much as perfect a stage 2 (expanding) population pyramid as is possible in the real world.
IPO-VID LIVESTREAM: NEXT TUESDAY
“Introducing The IPO-VID Panel”
Guests: Mark Beddis, Ann Berg & Peter Randall
June 24th, 2025
1700 UK, 1800 CET, 1200 EST
We’re trying something different for IPO-VID 180, a panel will discuss market structure news, views and matters of moment. Joining me will be BIDS co-founder Mark Beddis, former CBOT board member Ann Berg and former CHi-X co-founder & CEO Peter Randall.
Join us and chip in with a comment or question on June 24th at 12 noon EST
IN BIGWORLD
From Exchange Invest 3299: June 18th:
Let’s posit a pretty wild thought but I suspect it could have a lot more legs than it had even a week or two ago. Essentially, we all priced in a mid-term loss for President Trump in the mid-terms because…that’s how it usually goes and, hey, mid-terms tend to see higher Democrat vote levels but…
Right now there are many possible pitfalls for the GOP (and the crypto thing worries me as the blind are distributing the blind I feel) but at the same time, the Dem leaders reckon torching cars and rioting to save the illegal residency of foreign criminals is the way to go. Plus the festering mess of the Biden admin continues to leave its own stink cloud over the party and its media acolytes.
Trump is governing with haste as if the mid-terms are lost. Trigger warning: But if he keeps achieving (keeping new immigrants out, removing at least the worst criminal elements of the current illegal groupings) and maintains his overall momentum… I think the equilibrium may be such that Trump can win the mid-terms.
PLY: Market Movers On Fintech TV
Catch me on Market Movers On Fintech TV every Monday at 0920 AM for the latest insights in finance, technology, impact investing, and market trends. Fintech TV is on the web (Fintech.TV), in a multitude of airports across the USA and other channels.
BITCARNAGE
More Benjamins!
Proclaiming crypto clarity in CFTC regulation, incoming Chairman (subject to Congressional approval) Brian Quintenz raises a rather ominous term for blockchain, describing it as a “society-shaping technology.” Decentralised shades of Orwell anybody?
Meanwhile, of course CFTC would _love_ to regulate crypto but if it does so, it will need more money… goes the message from the incoming / awaiting confirmation Chairman as Quintenz Says CFTC Will Need More Funding If Tasked With Broader Crypto Oversight (The Block) and it means US dollars, as clearly Bitcoin just won’t do?
If you enjoyed this excerpt you may be interested to know that you can read Bitcarnage every day in Exchange Invest.
Alternatively, if you want to follow Bitcarnage — the daily update on happenings in the world of crypto and digital assets, then you can find Bitcarnage as a standalone on Substack.
EXCHANGE INVEST WEEKLY PODCAST
NSE IPO Looming as MCX and NSE Gain Electricity Futures licences,
ASX Pyrrhic Victory Followed By Unprecedented Review,
And We salute OM Group 40 Years On.
OF INTEREST
As always, a review of interesting reading to provoke thoughts and consideration… Not sure we agree with much of it….but it’s thought-provoking!
What The West Still Gets Wrong About Chinese Students
Chinese Whispers
PLY: Cindy Yu is a fabulous source of information on China who is moving to The Times of London. I will miss her insights behind that paywall.
Türkiye’s Apricot Harvest Crushed By Frost, Raising Global Shortage Fears
Turkiye Today
PLY: A major worry as until even recently, Turkiye has been delivering 20% of the world’s exported apricots.
As War Breaks Out With Israel, Iran Has Run Out Of Good Options
The Conversation
PLY: A fast moving situation so this may look dated by the weekend but it’s an interesting surmise of just how a once mighty regional power has been utterly reduced through first the Israeli decapitation of its satellites and now direct attacks on Iran itself.
Pharos
Ian Robert Millard
Westminster Must Fall
The Spectator
PLY: Dominic Cummings is a phenomenally polarising figure in UK politics — he makes Donald Trump look utterly unifying by comparison in the USA. However, unlike Trump, Cummings is a deep thinker and here he reprises his key critiques of the entire bloated British blob.
Is Xi Jinping’s Time Up?
The Spectator
PLY: If you thought that was a lot to consider, read the above, quite incredible series of thoughts on why China’s leader may be at or past his peak in power. I have no opinion on the matter but it’s a remarkable, thought provoking read.
Books worth reading:
Finance Book Of The Week
“Wait: The useful art of procrastination” by Frank Partnoy weaves together findings from hundreds of scientific studies and interviews with wide-ranging experts to craft a picture of effective decision-making that runs counter to our brutally fast-paced world. The procrastinator in all of us will delight in Partnoy’s accounts of celebrity “delay specialists,” from Warren Buffett to Chris Evert to Steve Kroft, underscoring the myriad ways in which delaying our reactions to everyday choices — large and small — can improve the quality of our lives.
Get the book here.
*Paid link, as an Amazon Associate, Exchange Invest earns from qualifying purchases.
Suggestions welcome if you would like to nominate a book for us to cover!
Our next Book of the week will be unveiled Saturday in the EI Weekend Edition.
& don’t forget if you want all the news on the bourse business sent daily to your Inbox subscribe to Exchange Invest — via Exchange Invest.com — it’s only $499 per annum to join “The Exchange of Information.
Capital Market Revolution
First published in 1999, “Capital Market Revolution!” offered a clear, concise roadmap for navigating the financial revolution fueled by technology. And 25 years later, as the world of fintech continues to evolve, the core principles laid out in the book remain surprisingly sharp
This new edition was produced to celebrate PLY ringing the NYSE Closing Bell July 5th, 2024. There are several new sections of PLY pith to add 10,000 more words of context and the original book which is remarkably prescient and elegantly dated all at once! It’s only $9.99 on Kindle, a fraction of the original price in 1999 to encourage revolutionaries with any budget!
Get the book here.
*Paid link, as an Amazon Associate, Exchange Invest earns from qualifying purchases.
IPO-VID LIVESTREAM: NOW ONLINE!
“Introducing The Ethiopian SX”
Guests: Michael Habte
June 17th, 2025
1700 UK, 1800 CET, 1200 EST
Having worked with top-tier global financial firms, including Citigroup, Bloomberg, BBVA, Moody’s, and Wood Mackenzie, Michael Habte co-led the ESX Project Office which led to his becoming COO of the Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX), where he oversees all aspects of the exchange’s operations, including trading, clearing, settlement, and regulatory compliance. Join us to hear about Ethiopia’s exciting new stock exchange.
IPO-VID LIVESTREAM PODCAST
In this latest release, we explore The Evolution of Trading with market veteran Mark Beddis. From launching Asia’s first stock options market to pioneering block trading innovation with BIDS, Mark shares insights drawn from over four decades at the heart of global market transformation.
🎧 Catch up now and stay ahead in the world of markets!
LAST WORD
The future continues in the water cooler of the bourse business.
…If you want to stay abreast of the world of exchanges then please Subscribe to our Daily Newsletter — free 7-day trial.
Or Subscribe to our Weekend Edition — it’s free.
You can also check out the “Reflections From Young’s Pyramid”, it illustrates the relative value of exchanges around the world.
Or the “ICE Cost of Borrowing 2020–2022” An Interest Rate Comparison, which illustrates the end of the funny money era of QE and how interest rates have already had a major lurch up from their previous region of zero to, even negative, levels.
At the least can you like this article, or leave us a comment, we welcome your feedback.
If you enjoy our multimedia, then please Like / Subscribe to our video channel: IPO-VID In Patrick’s Opinion.